• Let's review the highlights of your investment portfolio.

    1. INTRODUCTION

    2. PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

    3. PERFORMANCE

    4. INVESTMENT RISK

    5. NEXT STEPS

    Risk Return
  • Important Information

    Array
  • 2. PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

  • First let's see how your portfolio was designed starting on 12/22/1998.

  • Your portfolio is invested in 2 listed securities.

  • This is your portfolio allocation across asset classes.

  • Your portfolio was constructed using the following approach:

    • Component securities and strategies were bought and held without rebalancing
    • Results are net of 1.5% annual management fees
    • The strategy named '100 US Equities' was assigned as a comparison benchmark
  • 3. PERFORMANCE

  • Let's review your performance over the past 23.7 years, from 12/22/1998, the first day data was available, to 08/12/2022.

  • Your portfolio has been profitable in 72% of annual periods. Its average annual return of 8.06% has been achieved with performance swings from +190.3% in its best year to -52.7%.

    Net Annualized Returns
    Since inception 8.06%
    Year to date -29.22%
    Last 12 months -36.58%
    Past 3 years 9.26%
    Past 5 years 10.42%
    Past 10 years 14.74%
    Rolling 12-Month Returns Statistics
    Number of positive periods 72%
    Average when positive 22.5%
    Average when negative -15.8%
    Best 12 months 190.3%
    Worst 12 months -52.7%
    Rolling statistics are based on the analysis of the 8,383 twelve-month time windows in your portfolio's data history from 12/22/1998 to 08/12/2022.
  • Here is its performance in each calendar year, consistent with its overall 8.06% annual returns. Move your cursor over the chart to see returns in individual years.

  • Each calendar year has a balance of months with negative and positive performance.

  • Performance comparison of your portfolio and global asset classes.

    2022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001200019991998
    Gold Bullion -1.8% Global Real Estate +47.3% Consumer Discretionary +80.8% US Broad Stock Market +30.6% Intermediate Government Bonds +1% Consumer Discretionary +34.1% Emerging Markets Bonds +22.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +7.3% Global Real Estate +30.9% Consumer Discretionary +41.1% Emerging Markets Bonds +28.6% Municipal Bonds +10.8% Gold Bullion +29.3% Emerging Markets Stocks +94.3% Intermediate Government Bonds +15.4% Emerging Markets Stocks +45.4% Emerging Markets Stocks +39.6% Emerging Markets Stocks +39.1% Global Real Estate +36.7% Emerging Markets Stocks +68% Intermediate Government Bonds +16.3% Consumer Discretionary +11.1% Global Real Estate +32.8% Emerging Markets Stocks +69.1% US Broad Stock Market +23.3%
    Intermediate Government Bonds -6.7% Natural Resources +26.3% Global Stocks +30.9% Global Stocks +28.9% Municipal Bonds +0.9% Emerging Markets Stocks +31.1% Natural Resources +21.5% Consumer Discretionary +6.5% US Broad Stock Market +12.4% US Broad Stock Market +33.3% Consumer Discretionary +22.3% Emerging Markets Bonds +10.3% Global Real Estate +28.1% Natural Resources +51.5% Intermediate-Term Bonds +8.2% Gold Bullion +30.5% Global Real Estate +35.2% Emerging Markets Bonds +32.4% Emerging Markets Stocks +28.2% Gold Bullion +49% Intermediate-Term Bonds +10.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +9.5% Intermediate Government Bonds +15.9% Global Stocks +31.7% Intermediate Government Bonds +11.1%
    Natural Resources -8.6% US Broad Stock Market +25.6% Gold Bullion +24.8% Consumer Discretionary +26.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds +0.1% Global Stocks +28.7% US Broad Stock Market +12.5% Municipal Bonds +4% Municipal Bonds +11.1% Global Stocks +32.3% Emerging Markets Stocks +19.8% Intermediate Government Bonds +9.8% Consumer Discretionary +27.5% Global Real Estate +45% Gold Bullion +4.9% Natural Resources +26.1% Gold Bullion +22.5% Gold Bullion +17.8% Emerging Markets Bonds +22.4% Global Stocks +38.4% Municipal Bonds +9.7% Intermediate-Term Bonds +8.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +15.3% US Broad Stock Market +23.8% Intermediate-Term Bonds +9%
    Intermediate-Term Bonds -8.8% Global Stocks +18.2% US Broad Stock Market +20.9% Natural Resources +23.5% Gold Bullion -1.9% Natural Resources +23.8% Emerging Markets Stocks +11.5% Global Stocks +2.9% Emerging Markets Bonds +10% Natural Resources +24.9% Global Stocks +17.8% Gold Bullion +9.6% Natural Resources +24.5% Emerging Markets Bonds +43.6% Municipal Bonds -4.9% Global Stocks +18.2% Emerging Markets Bonds +20.9% Global Real Estate +17.7% Natural Resources +16.5% Natural Resources +37.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +9.6% Intermediate Government Bonds +6.6% Municipal Bonds +13.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +23.6% Municipal Bonds +6.6%
    Municipal Bonds -9.4% Municipal Bonds +1.8% Natural Resources +19.4% Global Real Estate +22.2% Emerging Markets Bonds -2.4% US Broad Stock Market +21% Gold Bullion +8% Global Real Estate +2.8% Consumer Discretionary +7.9% Global Real Estate +4.5% Natural Resources +17.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds +7.7% Emerging Markets Stocks +22.7% Consumer Discretionary +41.4% Emerging Markets Bonds -9.7% Emerging Markets Bonds +15.3% Natural Resources +19.9% Global Stocks +13.5% US Broad Stock Market +12.5% Global Real Estate +37.1% Global Real Estate +5% Global Real Estate +6.4% Intermediate-Term Bonds +11.4% Natural Resources +20.6% Gold Bullion +5.6%
    US Broad Stock Market -10.4% Emerging Markets Stocks +0.7% Emerging Markets Stocks +15.1% Emerging Markets Stocks +20.1% Consumer Discretionary -3.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +16.8% Consumer Discretionary +7% Intermediate Government Bonds +1.2% Natural Resources +5.9% Emerging Markets Bonds -1.8% US Broad Stock Market +16.3% Global Real Estate +6.5% Emerging Markets Bonds +20.1% US Broad Stock Market +28.7% Global Real Estate -34.4% Intermediate Government Bonds +10.3% Global Stocks +17% US Broad Stock Market +6% Global Stocks +12.2% Consumer Discretionary +35.2% Gold Bullion -2.2% Municipal Bonds +4.8% Gold Bullion -6.1% Consumer Discretionary +16.4% Natural Resources +5.3%
    Global Real Estate -10.7% Intermediate Government Bonds -2.3% Intermediate Government Bonds +8.2% Gold Bullion +17.9% Global Stocks -4.6% Gold Bullion +12.8% Global Real Estate +6.1% Intermediate-Term Bonds +0.5% Intermediate-Term Bonds +5.8% Intermediate-Term Bonds -2.2% Global Real Estate +15.5% Consumer Discretionary +3% US Broad Stock Market +17.1% Global Stocks +27.7% Consumer Discretionary -36.4% Intermediate-Term Bonds +6.9% Consumer Discretionary +15.7% Natural Resources +3.7% Consumer Discretionary +12% US Broad Stock Market +31.3% Emerging Markets Stocks -4.6% Natural Resources +2.1% Global Stocks -8.8% Global Real Estate +0.7% Global Stocks +2.6%
    Emerging Markets Stocks -15.1% Intermediate-Term Bonds -2.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds +7.5% Emerging Markets Bonds +16.3% US Broad Stock Market -5.3% Municipal Bonds +6.8% Intermediate-Term Bonds +2.4% US Broad Stock Market +0.3% Intermediate Government Bonds +3.9% Municipal Bonds -3% Municipal Bonds +8.1% US Broad Stock Market +1% Global Stocks +17% Gold Bullion +24% US Broad Stock Market -37% US Broad Stock Market +5.5% US Broad Stock Market +15.5% Municipal Bonds +3.1% Gold Bullion +5.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +26.8% Natural Resources -5.3% Gold Bullion -1.3% US Broad Stock Market -10.6% Intermediate-Term Bonds -0.9% Consumer Discretionary +2.5%
    Emerging Markets Bonds -16.2% Emerging Markets Bonds -2.4% Municipal Bonds +5.7% Municipal Bonds +8.5% Global Real Estate -9.1% Global Real Estate +4.4% Intermediate Government Bonds +1.2% Natural Resources -10.2% Emerging Markets Stocks +3.5% Intermediate Government Bonds -3.7% Gold Bullion +6.6% Global Stocks -6.7% Intermediate Government Bonds +6.7% Municipal Bonds +14.1% Global Stocks -40.2% Municipal Bonds +2.6% Municipal Bonds +4.4% Intermediate-Term Bonds +3.1% Intermediate-Term Bonds +4.9% Municipal Bonds +5.2% Global Stocks -18.8% Emerging Markets Stocks -4.8% Natural Resources -14.6% Intermediate Government Bonds -3.3% Global Real Estate -13.4%
    Global Stocks -18.2% Consumer Discretionary -3% Emerging Markets Bonds +4.6% Intermediate-Term Bonds +8.5% Emerging Markets Stocks -14.7% Intermediate-Term Bonds +3.9% Municipal Bonds +0.6% Gold Bullion -10.7% Global Stocks +1.1% Emerging Markets Stocks -4.2% Intermediate Government Bonds +4.4% Natural Resources -9.5% Intermediate-Term Bonds +6.4% Intermediate-Term Bonds +2.9% Natural Resources -46.5% Consumer Discretionary -14% Intermediate Government Bonds +3.5% Intermediate Government Bonds +1.2% Municipal Bonds +4.1% Intermediate-Term Bonds +5.1% Consumer Discretionary -19.9% Global Stocks -6.2% Consumer Discretionary -17.2% Municipal Bonds -4.5% Emerging Markets Stocks -16.4%
    Consumer Discretionary -29.2% Gold Bullion -4.1% Global Real Estate -11.4% Intermediate Government Bonds +6.3% Natural Resources -17.5% Intermediate Government Bonds +1.6% Global Stocks -0.6% Emerging Markets Stocks -15% Gold Bullion -2.2% Gold Bullion -28.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds +3.8% Emerging Markets Stocks -19% Municipal Bonds +1.5% Intermediate Government Bonds -4.2% Emerging Markets Stocks -51.6% Global Real Estate -14.1% Intermediate-Term Bonds +3.4% Consumer Discretionary -7% Intermediate Government Bonds +3.7% Intermediate Government Bonds +2.4% US Broad Stock Market -21% US Broad Stock Market -11% Emerging Markets Stocks -25.2% Gold Bullion -8.3% Emerging Markets Bonds -24.3%
  • Here is the growth of 1000 invested in your portfolio on 12/22/1998 compared to its benchmark.

    The vertical axis uses a log scale. As a result a 2% gain/loss (for instance) in 2013 looks like a dip of the same size as a 2% loss/gain in a previous year.
  • Portfolio pro-forma monthly net performance.

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
    19982.54%2.5%
    19995.03%-0.74%4.72%2.5%-4.65%6.31%-7.57%-3.98%-1.58%8.74%-0.07%8.14%16.4%
    2000-11.56%-5.69%14.01%-2.19%-5.53%-5.54%1.47%-4.28%0%-1.39%-2.61%6.92%-17.2%
    200111.49%-7.25%-1.59%4.52%2.25%-0.91%4.32%-8.89%-12.72%5.13%13.18%4.42%11.1%
    20023.16%0.43%1.15%-2.93%-0.65%-5.38%-12.06%2.89%-9.03%6.61%4.5%-8.64%-19.9%
    2003-3.46%-0.56%2.22%11.57%5.19%1.32%1.71%4.98%-4.9%8.96%0.79%3.87%35.2%
    2004-0.69%2.29%-0.38%-1.55%0.11%0.21%-4.28%-0.3%3%3.61%4.64%5.14%12%
    2005-4.47%-0.41%-1.12%-6.68%6.55%0.1%5.36%-4.05%-2.55%-2.38%4.01%-0.73%-7%
    20061.63%0.47%0.96%0.89%-2.29%-0.41%-3.88%2.07%6.02%6.33%1.38%2%15.7%
    20072.89%-2.76%-0.51%2.4%2.81%-1.83%-5.95%0.3%-0.66%-0.2%-5.85%-5.08%-14%
    2008-1.43%-4.43%-1.59%3.26%1.67%-12.21%0.21%6.77%-8.66%-19.31%-11.35%6.41%-36.4%
    2009-10.52%-8.41%12.45%18.88%-0.64%0.28%9.65%3.71%5.39%-2.87%6.38%4.61%41.4%
    2010-2.82%5.63%7.97%6.03%-7.23%-10.01%7.86%-4.51%11.6%5.36%2.78%4.38%27.5%
    2011-1.15%5.67%-0.49%3.81%-0.39%-0.32%-1.74%-5.79%-7.33%12.33%-1.18%0.98%3%
    20126.06%4.82%4.29%0.82%-5.84%1.52%-0.46%4.65%3%-1.32%2.84%0.52%22.3%
    20135.73%1.02%4.42%2.92%2.96%0.69%5.18%-2.89%5.46%4.26%3.35%2.15%41.1%
    2014-5.99%6.37%-2.83%-1.65%2.51%2.11%-1.72%4.28%-2.97%2.2%5.41%0.68%7.9%
    2015-3.16%8.27%-0.42%-0.4%1.26%0.38%4.28%-6.58%-1.21%8.27%-0.47%-2.89%6.5%
    2016-5.61%0.6%6.63%-1.09%0.38%-1.8%6.3%0.97%0.71%-2%3.01%-0.65%7%
    20173.54%2.16%1.98%4.21%3.3%2.79%2.32%-1.51%1.09%2.18%2.95%4.81%34.1%
    20188.59%-0.75%-1.93%0.63%3.64%5.49%0.25%5.67%-2.13%-13.1%2.61%-10.13%-3.4%
    201912.64%3.59%1.27%4.81%-9.8%8.01%1.81%-3.62%-0.72%1.98%1.75%3.55%26.3%
    20200.54%-6.17%-16.72%25.66%13.06%7.51%14.45%10.51%-3.3%-1.02%16.46%6.88%80.8%
    20215.59%2.6%-0.57%3.45%-3.7%5.6%-3.4%-1.27%-4.68%5.12%-5.16%-5.55%-3%
    2022-12.2%-5.74%-1.34%-14.5%-8.25%-12.19%14.41%9.99%-29.2%
  • The portfolio's Sharpe ratio history helps build expectations for how market environments impact quality of returns.

    This chart shows 3-year rolling Sharpe ratios computed using a risk-free rate of 1%.
  • Let's now look at the range of expected future returns.

  • The top and bottom curves on this chart show the growth that can be expected from this portfolio with 95 percent confidence. Move your mouse over the chart to view numbers.

  • This is what the previous chart suggests you can expect short-term after investing $1,000 in this portfolio.

    • Your account could be worth between $717 and $1,386 after six months.
    • It could be worth between $598 and $1,638 after a year.
    • These ranges are consistent with long-term annual returns of 8.06%.
  • 4. INVESTMENT RISK

  • Let's start with a summary. Your portfolio's risk-versus-return score on a scale of 0 to 100 is 13.

    Risk-vs-Return
  • Your score of 13 indicates where your portfolio falls on the spectrum of risk versus expected returns.

    • A score of 100 aims for the highest long-term returns, with high risk.
    • A score of 13 is neither good nor bad.
    • The goal is that it intuitively reflect your intent for this investment.
  • To visualize how your risk score can be adjusted to suit your objectives, let's compare it to efficient-frontier portfolios.

    • Efficient-frontier portfolios are computed dynamically using all the portfolios tracked by investors on this website.
    • They have delivered the best returns for the risk taken.
    • The portfolio nearest the top-right of the chart has the highest risk-return balance. Its risk score is 100.
  • Here is your portfolio along with the portfolios on the Efficient Frontier. Click on a portfolio bubble if you wish to replace your portfolio with one on the Efficient Frontier.

  • Now let's look at other measures of risk.

  • Drawdowns measure how much a portfolio has dropped below its most recent peak value.

    • A drawdown of 0% means the portfolio has reached a new high.
    • Most of the time a portfolio is below its last peak as markets fluctuate.
    • Only once in a while does it reach a new peak, and the drawdown reverts to 0.
    • Average and maximum drawdowns give an indication of risk.
  • Your portfolio's drawdown history highlights how deep losses were and how long it took to recover.

    Drawdowns are shown as percentage losses from the most recent peak value.
  • Your portfolio's largest historical drawdown was -61.3%.

  • Here is a summary of the most common risk metrics. Click on highlights for definitions.

    Risk Analysis
    Volatility 23.51%
    Sharpe ratio 0.3
    Sortino ratio 0.5
    Duration (years) 0
    Current drawdown -40.1%
    Risk score (0 to 100): 13
    Maximum Drawdown
    Maximum drawdown -61.3%
    MAR ratio 0.1
    Length in months 47
    Start 06/04/2007
    Trough 03/09/2009
    Recovery 04/27/2011
    Trough to recovery (months) 26
    Statistics computed from 12/22/1998 to 08/12/2022.
  • Your portfolio's average volatility since 12/22/1998 is 23.51%.

  • This is how your portfolio compares to the broad U.S. stock and bond markets since 12/22/1998.

    The size of each bubble is proportional to Sharpe ratio
  • The portfolio's overall correlation to its benchmark is 96%

  • 5. NEXT STEPS

  • Thank you for reviewing this investment presentation.
    Please select one of the action buttons above to continue.

Performance presented is back-tested and does not indicate actual or future performance. Back-tested performance results do not reflect actual trading and have certain inherent limitations. Please visit the Disclosures Page and refer to the Back-Tested Performance Disclosures section to see important disclosures regarding hypothetical back-tested performance.
Past performance presented represents actual historical returns and is not indicative of future results. Please visit the Disclosures Page and refer to the NTAM Strategies and Actual Performance Disclosures section to see important disclosures regarding past performance.
Performance presented herein has been adjusted for the Manager's fees as specified on the Performance Analysis Overview Page.
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