• Let's review the highlights of your investment portfolio.

    1. INTRODUCTION

    2. PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

    3. PERFORMANCE

    4. INVESTMENT RISK

    5. NEXT STEPS

    Risk Return

  • Important Information

    Array

  • 2. PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

  • First let's see how your portfolio was designed starting on 10/24/2006.

  • Your portfolio is invested in 2 listed securities.

  • The main asset class of your portfolio is: Commodities - Energy. The detailed allocation across asset classes is shown below.

  • Your portfolio was constructed using the following approach:

    • Main investment approach: Trend following
    • Main asset class: Commodities - Energy
    • Component securities and strategies were bought and held without rebalancing
    • Results are net of 1.5% annual management fees
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (ticker symbol: VTSMX) was assigned as a comparison benchmark

  • 3. PERFORMANCE

  • Let's review your performance over the past 15.3 years, from 10/24/2006, the first day data was available, to 01/21/2022.

  • Your portfolio has been profitable in 59% of annual periods. Its average annual return of 3.1% has been achieved with performance swings from +118.1% in its best year to -52.1%.

    Net Annualized Returns
    Since inception 3.1%
    Year to date 2.5%
    Last 12 months 14.7%
    Past 3 years 8.5%
    Past 5 years 3.7%
    Past 10 years 3.1%
    Rolling 12-Month Returns Statistics
    Number of positive periods 59%
    Average when positive 19.6%
    Average when negative -17.1%
    Best 12 months 118.1%
    Worst 12 months -52.1%
    Rolling statistics are based on the analysis of the 5,317 twelve-month time windows in your portfolio's data history from 10/24/2006 to 01/21/2022.

  • Here is its performance in each calendar year, consistent with its overall 3.1% annual returns. Move your cursor over the chart to see returns in individual years.

  • Each calendar year has a balance of months with negative and positive performance.

  • Performance comparison of your portfolio and global asset classes.

    20222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
    Energy +2.5% Natural Resources +83% Global Stocks +30.9% US Broad Stock Market +30.6% Intermediate Government Bonds +1% Emerging Markets Stocks +31.1% Natural Resources +53.1% Emerging Markets Bonds +7.3% Global Real Estate +29.8% US Broad Stock Market +33.3% Emerging Markets Bonds +28.6% Municipal Bonds +10.8% Global Real Estate +29.9% Emerging Markets Stocks +76.1% Intermediate Government Bonds +13.7% Emerging Markets Stocks +39% Global Real Estate +36.7%
    Natural Resources +1.8% Global Real Estate +47.2% Natural Resources +27.4% Global Stocks +28.9% Municipal Bonds +0.9% Global Stocks +28.7% Energy +22.4% Global Real Estate +4.8% US Broad Stock Market +12.4% Global Stocks +32.3% Emerging Markets Stocks +18.6% Emerging Markets Bonds +10.3% Gold Bullion +29.2% Natural Resources +49.3% Gold Bullion +4.3% Energy +36.2% Emerging Markets Stocks +29.4%
    Gold Bullion +1.8% US Broad Stock Market +25.6% Gold Bullion +24.6% Global Real Estate +22.1% Gold Bullion -0.9% US Broad Stock Market +21% Emerging Markets Bonds +22.4% Municipal Bonds +4% Municipal Bonds +11.1% Energy +26.7% Global Stocks +17.8% Intermediate Government Bonds +9.9% Natural Resources +25.5% Emerging Markets Bonds +43.6% Intermediate-Term Bonds +4% Natural Resources +32% Gold Bullion +23.2%
    Emerging Markets Stocks +0.5% Energy +22.9% US Broad Stock Market +20.9% Emerging Markets Stocks +20.1% Emerging Markets Bonds -2.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +16.8% US Broad Stock Market +12.5% Global Stocks +2.9% Emerging Markets Bonds +10% Global Real Estate +3.3% Global Real Estate +17% Gold Bullion +8.9% Emerging Markets Bonds +20.1% Global Real Estate +31.6% Municipal Bonds -4.9% Gold Bullion +31.9% Emerging Markets Bonds +20.9%
    Intermediate Government Bonds -1.4% Global Stocks +4.9% Emerging Markets Stocks +14.4% Gold Bullion +18.4% Intermediate-Term Bonds -2.8% Gold Bullion +12.7% Emerging Markets Stocks +11.5% Intermediate Government Bonds +1.5% Intermediate-Term Bonds +5.9% Natural Resources -0.6% US Broad Stock Market +16.3% Global Real Estate +7.3% Emerging Markets Stocks +18.8% US Broad Stock Market +28.7% Emerging Markets Bonds -9.7% Global Stocks +18.2% Global Stocks +17%
    Municipal Bonds -1.6% Emerging Markets Stocks +0.7% Intermediate Government Bonds +8% Energy +17.1% Global Stocks -4.6% Municipal Bonds +6.8% Gold Bullion +8.1% Intermediate-Term Bonds +0.4% Intermediate Government Bonds +4.3% Emerging Markets Bonds -1.8% Gold Bullion +8.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds +6.9% US Broad Stock Market +17.1% Global Stocks +27.7% US Broad Stock Market -37% Emerging Markets Bonds +15.3% US Broad Stock Market +15.5%
    Emerging Markets Bonds -3.4% Municipal Bonds +0.4% Municipal Bonds +5.7% Emerging Markets Bonds +16.3% US Broad Stock Market -5.3% Energy +4.5% Global Real Estate +6.1% US Broad Stock Market +0.3% Global Stocks +1.1% Intermediate-Term Bonds -2.5% Municipal Bonds +8.1% US Broad Stock Market +1% Global Stocks +17% Gold Bullion +25% Global Stocks -40.2% Intermediate Government Bonds +10% Natural Resources +6.8%
    Global Real Estate -7.7% Intermediate Government Bonds -2.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +4.6% Municipal Bonds +8.5% Global Real Estate -9.1% Intermediate-Term Bonds +3.5% Intermediate-Term Bonds +2.5% Gold Bullion -12.1% Emerging Markets Stocks +0.4% Municipal Bonds -3% Natural Resources +6.1% Energy -3% Energy +16.7% Energy +23% Global Real Estate -40.2% US Broad Stock Market +5.5% Municipal Bonds +4.4%
    US Broad Stock Market -8.5% Emerging Markets Bonds -2.4% Energy -6.5% Intermediate Government Bonds +6.3% Emerging Markets Stocks -14.7% Global Real Estate +3.4% Intermediate Government Bonds +1.2% Emerging Markets Stocks -15.5% Gold Bullion +0.1% Intermediate Government Bonds -3.1% Intermediate-Term Bonds +4.1% Global Stocks -6.7% Intermediate Government Bonds +7.4% Municipal Bonds +14.1% Energy -42.5% Intermediate-Term Bonds +5.2% Energy +4.2%
    Global Stocks -10.3% Gold Bullion -4.3% Global Real Estate -12.2% Natural Resources -24.5% Energy -17.9% Intermediate Government Bonds +1.7% Municipal Bonds +0.6% Energy -18% Energy -10% Emerging Markets Stocks -5.2% Energy +3.9% Natural Resources -7.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds +6.4% Intermediate-Term Bonds +6.6% Natural Resources -46.8% Municipal Bonds +2.6% Intermediate-Term Bonds +3.5%
    Intermediate-Term Bonds 0% Intermediate-Term Bonds 0% Intermediate-Term Bonds 0% Intermediate-Term Bonds 0% Natural Resources -45.8% Natural Resources +1% Global Stocks -0.6% Natural Resources -38.2% Natural Resources -22.8% Gold Bullion -27.3% Intermediate Government Bonds +2.6% Emerging Markets Stocks -18.7% Municipal Bonds +1.5% Intermediate Government Bonds -1.9% Emerging Markets Stocks -52.9% Global Real Estate -18.8% Intermediate Government Bonds +2.3%

  • Here is the growth of 1000 invested in your portfolio on 10/24/2006 compared to its benchmark.

    The vertical axis uses a log scale. As a result a 2% gain/loss (for instance) in 2013 looks like a dip of the same size as a 2% loss/gain in a previous year.

  • Portfolio pro-forma monthly net performance.

    		Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
    20060.19%7.02%-2.84%4.2%
    2007-0.34%-1.16%4.49%4.7%7.26%1.97%-0.05%0.72%6.86%3.76%-3.6%7.38%36.2%
    2008-12.88%7.18%-2.11%10.01%5.76%0.21%-13.07%0.05%-16.32%-21.97%-3.5%-1.54%-42.5%
    2009-3.45%-12.16%4.97%10.39%11.3%-5.42%5.94%0.33%6.15%0.15%3.2%1.94%23%
    2010-5.29%2.14%3.86%3.41%-11.72%-5.52%8.87%-5.83%10.28%5.04%3.87%9.15%16.7%
    20116.18%6.24%2.51%1.01%-4.08%-2.15%-0.23%-9.87%-14.77%17.34%0.82%-2.44%-3%
    20123.14%5.35%-3.32%-1.42%-10.54%4.2%3.32%2.68%2.56%-2.01%-0.64%1.6%3.9%
    20137.76%0.62%2.38%-1.38%2.91%-2.54%5.53%-1.29%3.19%4.04%0.38%2.81%26.7%
    2014-5.52%5.48%1.43%3.59%1.6%4.68%-4.25%2.18%-7.69%-3.18%-6.86%-0.74%-10%
    2015-4.44%5.47%-1.42%5.39%-3.84%-3.28%-6.55%-4.96%-6.86%10.95%0.26%-8.48%-18%
    2016-4.85%-1.35%9.52%6.66%-0.33%1.19%0.19%1.89%3.31%-3.4%7.05%1.49%22.4%
    2017-1.8%-1.19%-0.62%-1.16%-1.79%0.04%2.39%-3.83%8.24%0.47%0.47%3.77%4.5%
    20184.02%-9.01%1.09%6.27%2.86%-0.55%1.91%-2.21%1.15%-11.26%-0.08%-11.73%-17.9%
    201910.89%2.84%1.13%1.92%-10.02%9.16%-1.99%-7.31%4.17%-0.72%2.31%5.53%17.1%
    2020-7.73%-11.73%-29.07%23.42%5.23%0.89%0.58%3.87%-7.5%-2.25%22.34%6.91%-6.5%
    20212.13%10.93%1.14%-0.26%2.61%5.56%-6.13%-1.07%1.21%11.76%-4.23%-1.32%22.9%
    20222.48%2.5%

  • The portfolio's Sharpe ratio history helps build expectations for how market environments impact quality of returns.

    This chart shows 3-year rolling Sharpe ratios computed using a risk-free rate of 1%.

  • Let's now look at the range of expected future returns.

  • The top and bottom curves on this chart show the growth that can be expected from this portfolio with 95 percent confidence. Move your mouse over the chart to view numbers.

  • This is what the previous chart suggests you can expect short-term after investing $1,000 in this portfolio.

    • Your account could be worth between $696 and $1,360 after six months.
    • It could be worth between $584 and $1,509 after a year.
    • These ranges are consistent with long-term annual returns of 3.1%.

  • 4. INVESTMENT RISK

  • Let's start with a summary. Your portfolio's risk-versus-return score on a scale of 0 to 100 is 47.6.

    Risk-vs-Return

  • Your score of 47.6 indicates where your portfolio falls on the spectrum of risk versus expected returns.

    • A score of 100 aims for the highest long-term returns, with high risk.
    • A score of 47.6 is neither good nor bad.
    • The goal is that it intuitively reflect your intent for this investment.

  • To visualize how your risk score can be adjusted to suit your objectives, let's compare it to efficient-frontier portfolios.

    • Efficient-frontier portfolios are computed dynamically using all the portfolios tracked by investors on this website.
    • They have delivered the best returns for the risk taken.
    • The portfolio nearest the top-right of the chart has the highest risk-return balance. Its risk score is 100.

  • Here is your portfolio along with the portfolios on the Efficient Frontier. Click on a portfolio bubble if you wish to replace your portfolio with one on the Efficient Frontier.

  • Now let's look at other measures of risk.

  • Drawdowns measure how much a portfolio has dropped below its most recent peak value.

    • A drawdown of 0% means the portfolio has reached a new high.
    • Most of the time a portfolio is below its last peak as markets fluctuate.
    • Only once in a while does it reach a new peak, and the drawdown reverts to 0.
    • Average and maximum drawdowns give an indication of risk.

  • Your portfolio's drawdown history highlights how deep losses were and how long it took to recover.

    Drawdowns are shown as percentage losses from the most recent peak value.

  • Your portfolio's largest historical drawdown was -60.7%.

  • Here is a summary of the most common risk metrics. Click on highlights for definitions.

    Risk Analysis
    Volatility 27.9%
    Sharpe ratio 0.1
    Sortino ratio 0.2
    Duration (years) 0
    Current drawdown -5%
    Risk score (0 to 100): 47.6
    Maximum Drawdown
    Maximum drawdown -60.7%
    MAR ratio 0.1
    Length in months 91
    Start 06/23/2014
    Trough 03/18/2020
    Recovery 01/21/2022
    Trough to recovery (months) 23
    Statistics computed from 10/24/2006 to 01/21/2022.

  • Your portfolio's average volatility since 10/24/2006 is 27.9%.

  • This is how your portfolio compares to the broad U.S. stock and bond markets since 10/24/2006.

    The size of each bubble is proportional to Sharpe ratio

  • The portfolio's overall correlation to its benchmark is 50%

  • 5. NEXT STEPS

  • Thank you for reviewing this investment presentation.
    Please select one of the action buttons above to continue.

Performance presented is back-tested and does not indicate actual or future performance. Back-tested performance results do not reflect actual trading and have certain inherent limitations. Please visit the Disclosures Page and refer to the Back-Tested Performance Disclosures section to see important disclosures regarding hypothetical back-tested performance.
Past performance presented represents actual historical returns and is not indicative of future results. Please visit the Disclosures Page and refer to the NTAM Strategies and Actual Performance Disclosures section to see important disclosures regarding past performance.
Performance presented herein has been adjusted for the Manager's fees as specified on the Performance Analysis Overview Page.
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