• Let's review the highlights of your investment portfolio.

    1. INTRODUCTION

    2. PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

    3. PERFORMANCE

    4. INVESTMENT RISK

    5. NEXT STEPS

    Risk Return
  • Important Information

    Array
  • 2. PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION

  • First let's see how your portfolio was designed starting on 01/29/1993.

  • Your portfolio is invested in 2 listed securities.

  • This is your portfolio allocation across asset classes.

  • Your portfolio was constructed using the following approach:

    • Component securities and strategies were bought and held without rebalancing
    • Results are net of 1.5% annual management fees
    • Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (ticker symbol: VTSMX) was assigned as a comparison benchmark
  • 3. PERFORMANCE

  • Let's review your performance over the past 29 years, from 01/29/1993, the first day data was available, to 01/21/2022.

  • Your portfolio has been profitable in 56% of annual periods. Its average annual return of 7.6% has been achieved with performance swings from +230% in its best year to -37.8%.

    Net Annualized Returns
    Since inception 7.6%
    Year to date 0.7%
    Last 12 months -3.5%
    Past 3 years 11.8%
    Past 5 years 6.6%
    Past 10 years -1.3%
    Rolling 12-Month Returns Statistics
    Number of positive periods 56%
    Average when positive 20%
    Average when negative -11.1%
    Best 12 months 230%
    Worst 12 months -37.8%
    Rolling statistics are based on the analysis of the 10,333 twelve-month time windows in your portfolio's data history from 01/29/1993 to 01/21/2022.
  • Here is its performance in each calendar year, consistent with its overall 7.6% annual returns. Move your cursor over the chart to see returns in individual years.

  • Each calendar year has a balance of months with negative and positive performance.

  • Performance comparison of your portfolio and global asset classes.

    2022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001200019991998
    Natural Resources +1.8% Natural Resources +83% Global Stocks +30.9% US Broad Stock Market +30.6% Intermediate Government Bonds +1% Emerging Markets Stocks +31.1% Natural Resources +53.1% Emerging Markets Bonds +7.3% Global Real Estate +29.8% US Broad Stock Market +33.3% Emerging Markets Bonds +28.6% Municipal Bonds +10.8% Precious Metals +38.3% Emerging Markets Stocks +76.1% Intermediate Government Bonds +13.7% Emerging Markets Stocks +39% Global Real Estate +36.7% Natural Resources +42.1% Global Real Estate +36.8% Emerging Markets Stocks +57.7% Gold Bullion +25.6% Emerging Markets Bonds +9.5% Global Real Estate +32% Emerging Markets Stocks +62% US Broad Stock Market +23.3%
    Gold Bullion +1.8% Global Real Estate +47.2% Precious Metals +28.3% Global Stocks +28.9% Municipal Bonds +0.9% Global Stocks +28.7% Emerging Markets Bonds +22.4% Global Real Estate +4.8% US Broad Stock Market +12.4% Global Stocks +32.3% Emerging Markets Stocks +18.6% Emerging Markets Bonds +10.3% Global Real Estate +29.9% Natural Resources +49.3% Gold Bullion +4.3% Natural Resources +32% Emerging Markets Stocks +29.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +32.4% Natural Resources +34.3% Precious Metals +42.9% Natural Resources +17% Global Real Estate +8.9% Natural Resources +25.8% Global Stocks +31.7% Intermediate Government Bonds +10.2%
    Precious Metals +0.7% US Broad Stock Market +25.6% Natural Resources +27.4% Global Real Estate +22.1% Gold Bullion -0.9% US Broad Stock Market +21% US Broad Stock Market +12.5% Municipal Bonds +4% Municipal Bonds +11.1% Global Real Estate +3.3% Global Stocks +17.8% Intermediate Government Bonds +9.9% Gold Bullion +29.2% Emerging Markets Bonds +43.6% Intermediate-Term Bonds +4% Gold Bullion +31.9% Gold Bullion +23.2% Emerging Markets Stocks +32.1% Emerging Markets Stocks +26.1% Natural Resources +42.1% Intermediate Government Bonds +12.6% Intermediate-Term Bonds +8.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +15.3% Natural Resources +25.4% Intermediate-Term Bonds +9%
    Emerging Markets Stocks +0.5% Global Stocks +4.9% Gold Bullion +24.6% Emerging Markets Stocks +20.1% Emerging Markets Bonds -2.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +16.8% Emerging Markets Stocks +11.5% Global Stocks +2.9% Emerging Markets Bonds +10% Natural Resources -0.6% Global Real Estate +17% Gold Bullion +8.9% Natural Resources +25.5% Global Real Estate +31.6% Precious Metals -2% Precious Metals +25.6% Precious Metals +22.5% Gold Bullion +17.8% Emerging Markets Bonds +22.4% Global Stocks +38.4% Intermediate-Term Bonds +10.4% Intermediate Government Bonds +7.6% Intermediate Government Bonds +14.1% US Broad Stock Market +23.8% Municipal Bonds +6.6%
    Intermediate Government Bonds -1.4% Emerging Markets Stocks +0.7% US Broad Stock Market +20.9% Gold Bullion +18.4% Intermediate-Term Bonds -2.8% Gold Bullion +12.7% Gold Bullion +8.1% Intermediate Government Bonds +1.5% Intermediate-Term Bonds +5.9% Emerging Markets Bonds -1.8% US Broad Stock Market +16.3% Global Real Estate +7.3% Emerging Markets Bonds +20.1% US Broad Stock Market +28.7% Municipal Bonds -4.9% Global Stocks +18.2% Emerging Markets Bonds +20.9% Global Real Estate +14.5% US Broad Stock Market +12.5% Global Real Estate +34.9% Municipal Bonds +9.7% Municipal Bonds +4.8% Municipal Bonds +13.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +23.6% Gold Bullion -0.8%
    Municipal Bonds -1.6% Municipal Bonds +0.4% Emerging Markets Stocks +14.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +16.3% Global Stocks -4.6% Precious Metals +9.9% Precious Metals +7.9% Intermediate-Term Bonds +0.4% Intermediate Government Bonds +4.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds -2.5% Gold Bullion +8.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds +6.9% Emerging Markets Stocks +18.8% Global Stocks +27.7% Emerging Markets Bonds -9.7% Emerging Markets Bonds +15.3% Global Stocks +17% Global Stocks +13.5% Global Stocks +12.2% US Broad Stock Market +31.3% Emerging Markets Bonds +9.6% Gold Bullion +0.7% Intermediate-Term Bonds +11.4% Gold Bullion +0.9% Precious Metals -1.3%
    Emerging Markets Bonds -3.4% Intermediate Government Bonds -2.4% Intermediate Government Bonds +8% Precious Metals +15.7% Precious Metals -4.7% Municipal Bonds +6.8% Global Real Estate +6.1% US Broad Stock Market +0.3% Global Stocks +1.1% Municipal Bonds -3% Municipal Bonds +8.1% Precious Metals +4.2% US Broad Stock Market +17.1% Precious Metals +26% US Broad Stock Market -37% Intermediate Government Bonds +10% US Broad Stock Market +15.5% Precious Metals +13.1% Precious Metals +7.4% Emerging Markets Bonds +26.8% Global Real Estate +5.4% Natural Resources +0.6% Gold Bullion -5.4% Global Real Estate -0.1% Global Real Estate -15.8%
    Global Real Estate -7.7% Emerging Markets Bonds -2.4% Municipal Bonds +5.7% Municipal Bonds +8.5% US Broad Stock Market -5.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds +3.5% Intermediate-Term Bonds +2.5% Gold Bullion -12.1% Emerging Markets Stocks +0.4% Intermediate Government Bonds -3.1% Natural Resources +6.1% US Broad Stock Market +1% Global Stocks +17% Gold Bullion +25% Global Stocks -40.2% US Broad Stock Market +5.5% Natural Resources +6.8% US Broad Stock Market +6% Gold Bullion +4.6% Gold Bullion +19.9% Precious Metals -2.6% Precious Metals -2.6% Global Stocks -8.8% Intermediate-Term Bonds -0.9% Emerging Markets Stocks -18.4%
    US Broad Stock Market -8.5% Gold Bullion -4.3% Emerging Markets Bonds +4.6% Intermediate Government Bonds +6.3% Global Real Estate -9.1% Global Real Estate +3.4% Intermediate Government Bonds +1.2% Precious Metals -12.3% Gold Bullion +0.1% Emerging Markets Stocks -5.2% Precious Metals +5.9% Global Stocks -6.7% Intermediate Government Bonds +7.4% Municipal Bonds +14.1% Global Real Estate -40.2% Intermediate-Term Bonds +5.2% Municipal Bonds +4.4% Municipal Bonds +3.1% Intermediate-Term Bonds +4.4% Municipal Bonds +5.2% Emerging Markets Stocks -7.4% Emerging Markets Stocks -2.8% Precious Metals -9.2% Intermediate Government Bonds -3.6% Emerging Markets Bonds -24.3%
    Global Stocks -10.3% Precious Metals -6.9% Global Real Estate -12.2% Natural Resources -24.5% Emerging Markets Stocks -14.7% Intermediate Government Bonds +1.7% Municipal Bonds +0.6% Emerging Markets Stocks -15.5% Precious Metals -7% Gold Bullion -27.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds +4.1% Natural Resources -7.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds +6.4% Intermediate-Term Bonds +6.6% Natural Resources -46.8% Municipal Bonds +2.6% Intermediate-Term Bonds +3.5% Intermediate Government Bonds +2.3% Municipal Bonds +4.1% Intermediate-Term Bonds +4.9% Global Stocks -18.8% Global Stocks -6.2% US Broad Stock Market -10.6% Municipal Bonds -4.5% Natural Resources -36%
    Intermediate-Term Bonds 0% Intermediate-Term Bonds 0% Intermediate-Term Bonds 0% Intermediate-Term Bonds 0% Natural Resources -45.8% Natural Resources +1% Global Stocks -0.6% Natural Resources -38.2% Natural Resources -22.8% Precious Metals -31.1% Intermediate Government Bonds +2.6% Emerging Markets Stocks -18.7% Municipal Bonds +1.5% Intermediate Government Bonds -1.9% Emerging Markets Stocks -52.9% Global Real Estate -18.8% Intermediate Government Bonds +2.3% Intermediate-Term Bonds +1.8% Intermediate Government Bonds +3.4% Intermediate Government Bonds +1.8% US Broad Stock Market -21% US Broad Stock Market -11% Emerging Markets Stocks -27.5% Precious Metals -7.1% Global Stocks -99.8%
  • Here is the growth of 1000 invested in your portfolio on 01/29/1993 compared to its benchmark.

    The vertical axis uses a log scale. As a result a 2% gain/loss (for instance) in 2013 looks like a dip of the same size as a 2% loss/gain in a previous year.
  • Portfolio pro-forma monthly net performance.

    Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
    19930%13.11%89.81%23.81%3.66%9.04%10.72%-7.85%-12.65%18.96%-2.3%7.96%236%
    1994-1.83%-8.49%2.15%-9.18%7.07%-3.86%-4.52%0.59%14.75%-9.38%-10.37%3.51%-20.5%
    1995-9.25%6.27%14.38%0.17%1.5%-0.01%-2.18%2.36%2.24%-9.17%10.25%-0.26%14.7%
    199611.59%1.25%4.25%-5.14%2.26%-11.33%-1.25%3.54%-8.51%2.34%10.05%0.09%6.8%
    1997-6.74%5.17%-13.27%-6.68%11.02%-11.38%1.65%1.23%8.55%-14.75%-12.41%12.6%-26.7%
    19982.95%1.16%8.19%2.03%-15.64%2.38%-11.62%-19.19%44.08%4.38%-5.61%-1.92%-1.3%
    1999-1.15%-4.75%-5.03%15.96%-13.11%10.93%-2.74%1.98%11.67%-14%-1.51%-0.92%-7.1%
    2000-6.26%-1.15%-3.8%5.5%6.49%0.5%-10.28%-0.21%-3.73%-10.4%9.27%6.94%-9.2%
    2001-3.7%2.05%-10.13%12.03%0.93%-7.17%-2.05%5.92%8.33%-9.61%-2.53%6.07%-2.6%
    20024.49%5.1%3.19%6.2%9.12%-11.39%-16.62%3.27%-2.86%-2.84%-2.45%5.58%-2.6%
    20036.17%-2.87%-3.49%-2.66%13.73%1.64%-1.54%14.46%-5.75%2.72%13.05%3.43%42.9%
    2004-9.72%4.16%16.85%-20.43%6.9%-4.51%-0.61%4.56%3.5%6.98%9.29%-4.29%7.4%
    2005-7.75%4.37%-1.93%0.24%-2.82%3.07%-1.01%-0.39%8.45%-0.01%5.63%5.66%13.1%
    200610.17%-1.59%7.28%10.67%-3.21%-6.25%3.03%1.21%-6.1%2.15%8.46%-3.31%22.5%
    20072.97%2.9%-2.07%1.54%-2.01%-3.08%2.45%-0.41%10.99%6.35%-1.86%6.17%25.6%
    200811.46%7.28%-7.5%-4.2%0.72%4.03%-0.8%-12.18%1.36%-16.87%11.3%7.97%-2%
    20096.25%1.54%-2.3%-3.74%13.36%-7.19%2.33%1.21%7.07%2.37%12.68%-7.74%26%
    2010-1.93%2.68%0.92%5.9%1.98%1.96%-4.83%5.99%6.23%5.72%4.62%4.25%38.3%
    2011-7.29%9.72%4.19%14.42%-8%-4.89%9.58%10.41%-14.82%7.45%0.51%-11.74%4.2%
    201212.77%-1.87%-2.36%-1.03%-7.14%1.6%1.07%6.45%5.53%-3.89%0.26%-4.03%5.9%
    20130.25%-6.2%0.57%-9.09%-6.81%-11.18%5.93%7.39%-5.4%-0.24%-6.33%-3.67%-31.1%
    20142.3%7.07%-3.94%-0.3%-2.92%7.12%-3.66%-0.71%-7.41%-3.57%-1.39%1.24%-7%
    20158.79%-5.57%-1.84%-0.82%1.08%-2.51%-6.76%2.81%-1.77%2.93%-7.32%-0.89%-12.3%
    20164.82%9.85%-0.28%6.91%-7.12%10.47%3.21%-4.49%1%-3.85%-8.37%-2.32%7.9%
    20176.15%3.33%-0.48%0.07%-0.09%-2.66%2.02%4.06%-3.78%-0.73%-0.2%2.19%9.9%
    20182.94%-2.81%0.26%-0.86%-1.05%-3.36%-2.7%-3.08%-0.5%1.12%0.03%5.59%-4.7%
    20192.87%-1.04%-2.01%-0.93%0.8%7.25%1.12%8.55%-4.09%3.14%-3.95%3.81%15.7%
    20203.77%-2.11%-3.32%6.81%5.39%2.53%15.21%3.08%-7.68%-0.2%-5.15%9.1%28.3%
    2021-2.1%-5.17%-3.07%3.96%7.54%-7.06%1.39%-1.43%-4.13%2.53%-1.61%3%-6.9%
    20220.72%0.7%
  • The portfolio's Sharpe ratio history helps build expectations for how market environments impact quality of returns.

    This chart shows 3-year rolling Sharpe ratios computed using a risk-free rate of 1%.
  • Let's now look at the range of expected future returns.

  • The top and bottom curves on this chart show the growth that can be expected from this portfolio with 95 percent confidence. Move your mouse over the chart to view numbers.

  • This is what the previous chart suggests you can expect short-term after investing $1,000 in this portfolio.

    • Your account could be worth between $701 and $1,368 after six months.
    • It could be worth between $635 and $1,489 after a year.
    • These ranges are consistent with long-term annual returns of 7.6%.
  • 4. INVESTMENT RISK

  • Let's start with a summary. Your portfolio's risk-versus-return score on a scale of 0 to 100 is 31.4.

    Risk-vs-Return
  • Your score of 31.4 indicates where your portfolio falls on the spectrum of risk versus expected returns.

    • A score of 100 aims for the highest long-term returns, with high risk.
    • A score of 31.4 is neither good nor bad.
    • The goal is that it intuitively reflect your intent for this investment.
  • To visualize how your risk score can be adjusted to suit your objectives, let's compare it to efficient-frontier portfolios.

    • Efficient-frontier portfolios are computed dynamically using all the portfolios tracked by investors on this website.
    • They have delivered the best returns for the risk taken.
    • The portfolio nearest the top-right of the chart has the highest risk-return balance. Its risk score is 100.
  • Here is your portfolio along with the portfolios on the Efficient Frontier. Click on a portfolio bubble if you wish to replace your portfolio with one on the Efficient Frontier.

  • Now let's look at other measures of risk.

  • Drawdowns measure how much a portfolio has dropped below its most recent peak value.

    • A drawdown of 0% means the portfolio has reached a new high.
    • Most of the time a portfolio is below its last peak as markets fluctuate.
    • Only once in a while does it reach a new peak, and the drawdown reverts to 0.
    • Average and maximum drawdowns give an indication of risk.
  • Your portfolio's drawdown history highlights how deep losses were and how long it took to recover.

    Drawdowns are shown as percentage losses from the most recent peak value.
  • Your portfolio's largest historical drawdown was -55.1%.

  • Here is a summary of the most common risk metrics. Click on highlights for definitions.

    Risk Analysis
    Volatility 30.2%
    Sharpe ratio 0.3
    Sortino ratio 0.5
    Duration (years) 0
    Current drawdown -27%
    Risk score (0 to 100): 31.4
    Maximum Drawdown
    Maximum drawdown -55.1%
    MAR ratio 0.1
    Length in months 122
    Start 02/05/1996
    Trough 10/24/2000
    Recovery 03/27/2006
    Trough to recovery (months) 66
    Statistics computed from 01/29/1993 to 01/21/2022.
  • Your portfolio's average volatility since 01/29/1993 is 30.2%.

  • This is how your portfolio compares to the broad U.S. stock and bond markets since 01/29/1993.

    The size of each bubble is proportional to Sharpe ratio
  • The portfolio's overall correlation to its benchmark is 59%

  • 5. NEXT STEPS

  • Thank you for reviewing this investment presentation.
    Please select one of the action buttons above to continue.

Performance presented is back-tested and does not indicate actual or future performance. Back-tested performance results do not reflect actual trading and have certain inherent limitations. Please visit the Disclosures Page and refer to the Back-Tested Performance Disclosures section to see important disclosures regarding hypothetical back-tested performance.
Past performance presented represents actual historical returns and is not indicative of future results. Please visit the Disclosures Page and refer to the NTAM Strategies and Actual Performance Disclosures section to see important disclosures regarding past performance.
Performance presented herein has been adjusted for the Manager's fees as specified on the Performance Analysis Overview Page.
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